Introduction

Located between Somalia and Tanzania Kenya is in one of the poorest parts of the world (economically at least).  Fossil records suggest that the human race started in East Africa. The Rift Valley, which runs through the centre of Kenya, is sometimes called ‘The Cradle of Humanity’. Today the human race ends in Kenya!, with neo-imperialism engulfing the birthplace of humanity. By 1505 the Portuguese started the first of two centuries of colonial rule and economic exploitation. By 1886: East Africa is divided between England and Germany. Few Africans know anything about these agreements made in Europe. By 1930: More then half of the agricultural land in Kenya is reserved for 2,000 white settlers. Today Kenya enjoys political independence at the price of economic sovereignty.
 

Population

The population stands at 28.8 million (July 1997 estimate).

Population growth rate has dramatically altered. Between 1979 – 1992, it was 3.34%, by 1997 it has been cut dramatically to just 2.13%.  The birth rate stands at 32.44 per thousand,  and 10.83 per thousand deaths.

But WHY is this the case?
The factors

Natural rate of increase has increased due to a falling infant mortality rate. In 1997 infant mortality stood at 55.2 per thousand, in 1960 it was 200.

Life expectancy however stands at just 54 years!

The real change ………….

The fertility rate, has been changed beyond all recognition!. In 1979 it stood at 8 (children born per female), by 1997 it stood at just 4.26 ALMOST HALFED! At the same time the Sub Saharan average is today 6.2!
 

What impact has Education had?

Today literacy stands at 86.3% male, 70% female. Clear divides still exist. One must remember, that research in 1993 concluded that “an educated woman (primary level) has on average 4 children, an uneducated women a has 6.2”. Since independence education has been central to government policy. Yet since 1988 IMF intervention most state schools have closed down. This causes a) growing inequality between male and female, b) higher fertility rates. Today the minimum wage is 2400 shillings a month, state education in the 80’s cost 250 shillings a month, the IMF intervention has led to private education taking over, it costs four times as much, 1000 shillings, an unbearable demand, that most people can not succumb to. One must remember, that 43% of Kenya’s population is 14 or under, what will they do if they have no schools?
Clearly education contributed, not least in literacy which helped with understanding of birth control and redressed the inequalities between male and female, the IMF is reversing the process of progressivism.

What impact has Democracy had?

While not truly a democratic country until late, since independence, people have undoubtedly had more political representation than before. In 1991 the government repealed the one-party system it instigated in 1982. Universal. Suffrage exists, at 18, hence half the country is NOT entitled to vote. At the same time however, the executive is limited to three terms and President Toroitich is on his way out by 2002, when he will not be allowed to run again, he has ruled since 1978. Democracy in the very least has contributed to a more positive address of social needs by the executive, though  with the IMF, this process is being reversed.

 
What impact has the IMF had?
… and what about BEFORE

BEFORE the paradigm of hope

When independence came, the Kenyans sought independence, not quasi-independence. In 1963 (year of independence) the Kenyan government undertook a process of import substitution. A two-thirds increase in the economy was primarily due to internal growth in demand between 1976 and 1985, from the Manufacturing sector. Indeed, manufacturing is a larger part of Kenyans GNP than anywhere else in East Africa. Yet, by the 1990’s two-thirds of Kenyan industry was owned by the invisible imperialists. Export processing zones were set-up to encourage growth, e.g. Anthi river outside Nairobi. Self sustainability was sought, 83% of energy was generated by HEP. Yet, at the same time 40% of export earnings went straight to the oil coffers.
 Agriculture is an example of prior success, with almost self sufficiency, providing 22% of paid employment. Yet at the same time, 80% of the population who worked the lands produced just 33% of earnings. Ingenuity was shown by not consuming fresh milk immediately but converting it into powder. Only 13.5% of horticulture exports went to LEDC’s. Satellite farming was encouraged, and export valorisation via canning at Njoro, and drying of fruits at Kiganjo using solar power. Emphasis was placed on intensive labour. Yet transport costs were and are high, nearly all shipped by plane on 747, which can hold only 125 tonnes a flight.

And now: the IMF’s Kenyan paradigm of success (for the West)
 

The IMF first stepped into Kenyan affairs, proper in the late 1980’s. In 1989 they provided Kenya a loan of about $120 million in exchange for austerity. The program became radical in 1993, when the Kenyan government implemented a program of economic ‘liberalisation’ and reform. The removal of import licensing, price controls, foreign exchange control, fiscal, monetary, public sector (and perhaps overall control). The rewards? A GNP per capita of $1400 and growth of 4% compared to 5% in the 80’s boom, oh and inflation of 1.6%. As mentioned, education has suffered and this provides positive feedback’s for the future. Not only this but import substitution, export valorisation and control of their own destiny has been sacrifices for supply side economics. Now, Kenya also has to contend with a $7 billion loan (1994) and a 35% urban unemployment rate. 5.82 times  as much is spent on the military as spent on fertility controls. ($134m 1994). Farming has been geared up to export, land is harder to get. Modernisation and commercialisation along IMF lines means poorer subsistence farmers can’t farm on the land. OVERPOPULATION? No but yes! Kenya has land, but it is not owned any more by Kenya, so is it still part of Kenya?. Marginalisation is being implemented at full force, poorer soils are becoming endemic. Should self-subsistence take priority over Coca-Cola?.  And what about the Environment? Well, certainly a Susan George IMF inspired boomerang has been thrown. Today marginalised peasants (marginalised due to the  IMF love of tourism, and erection of conservation parks all over the country for you and me to stay in) are harvesting small, wild plots of marijuana and qat (chat), offer transit for South Asian heroin, Indian methaqualone, and guess where it ends up?. London, Birmingham, Manchester. The IMF want services, they don’t want sufficiency, tourism is encouraged at the expense of the environment. Today over the last 15 years, 85% of Kenyan elephants have been wiped out, biodiversity is always a foe of the IMF. Plus, water pollution from industrial waste, pesticides and fertilisers leach into the soil daily, desertification and poaching.
 
 

But WHY has fertility fallen?

Before the IMF, women were gaining a greater foothold into society, they could read and write, work. Today their importance is declining as education is sapped, as hospitals are closed. Indeed of course, in addition to the pre-IMF economic measures, fertility control was a government policy. As mentioned, and uneducated women has 55% more children than an educated one. Nethertheless, the government sought imaginative methods such as Radio soap opera (Kuelewana Ni Kuzungumza) as well as free on demand contraceptives. Yet the problem is now these measures are increasing dependency on the developed world. The poignant image of Land rovers with tents in the back, symbolise this. They drive all over Kenya. In 1984 17% of women used contraceptives, today 33% (1993). Yet what about the other 67%?. They don’t yet fertility has fallen. In fact, the government gets 90% of its fertility funding from the UN (surely the milk of human kindness?). Today spending is $23 million, by their own estimates the UN say by 2010 it will have tripled to $72.3 million, and the UN admit they won’t be footing the bill. Of course the US manufactures won’t mind, as long as they keep getting paid. To be fair, other objects exist, barring the success of birth control measures, the government does not allow them to be dispensed to unmarried teenagers (morality?) and the catholic church refuse to allow Sex Education.
 Perhaps, the situation is best seen in the eyes of a Kenyan. Nellson, has a polygamous marriage with ‘about’ 10 children. 2 with him, 3 at school and 5 ‘here and there’. He has 8 acres of land, for food and coffee (Nescafe). The women do most of the work, as is traditional. Yet the realities of his children are somewhat different. Harsher times mean harsher conditions, his eldest son Joseph has just four acres of land, on a steep gradient and pretty infertile. He needs extra work, and enters the ‘economy’ in Nairobi working as casual labour (supply side flexibility?). His wife is left to tend for the land, no source of income e and no husband, the family enter the poverty trap and traditional family values intervene. This does limit family size, and the children are being educated, but this was in the 80’s, the education has dried up, the best form (and cheapest) of birth control, post bartem abstinence has been eradicated by modernisation, and if successive generations get no education, no health care, do you really believe they will buy contraceptives?.

Is there room for a brighter future? YES

Ngumbe, by lake Victoria is one of the most densely populated areas in Kenya. Dry arid land has been taken over by the women, so they can irrigate land. It is low scale, people not capital intensive, they are using their problem to act as a solution, population in itself can solve population problems. People define their own development, in this case. Land is distributed, equity prevails, This may sound primitive, but is appropriate?. In the pre-IMF Kenya, fertility declined due to improved education, due to better health, due to less necessity for children, yet if development is going to be about neo-imperialism, will fertility decline?.  Kenya experienced its great growth on the back of its initiative, the problem of population was superficial, the real was economic. Independence came in 1963, why should it end in 1993?, Real independence, that means no dependence is needed, equity can be naturally ensued by a just society, based on equality of opportunity. With continued intervention, Kenya’s fertility may just decrease through hardship and semi-slavery, but it will never develop and thus even reduced fertility will mean population problem, if a just democratic independent development could be established, then fertility declines rapidly, quality of life increases, and peoples aspirations are satisfied on a large scale, rather than in the confines of a Nairobi banks  board room.

In the UK a developed country, food is a small part of ones income and education is innate to the society. Inequality in literacy in the UK is non-existent. If Kenya offers equal education, if women are respected, then they the ultimate controllers of world population output will cut back on production. If Kenyans have more money, they consume more, they demand more, and if import substitution exists then a manufacturing boom of the past could once again merge, and maybe then the Kenyan government can truly say “We let the population down”.